Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
