A mere eight weeks prior when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, they appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their talisman to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
